Rough numbers of Mac users

On 5 Apr 2006, at 13:26, Neil Lee wrote:

> I don't know if this is off topic or not, but I was wondering if
> anyone has seen any rough statistics from a reliable source on the
> number of Mac users in North America and in the world? Or the number
> of Mac OS X users worldwide?

Depending on how rough you want to be...maybe Google for worldwide personal computer ownership figures and then the % of global market penetration by Apple products and get a
rough figure that way?

--
bignoseduglyguy
http://www.bignoseduglyguy.com
http://www.bignoseduglyguy.com/no8wire
http://www.flickr.com/photos/59999295N00/

For information about market share, it's usually a good idea to
search directly at the sites of business publications, which usually
have a lot of their stuff buried in un-googleable databases or behind
walled gardens.

Here's an article from Forbes:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/03/18/0318automarketscan10.html

And a very interesting quote from it:

"a survey made by the research firm showed that users of iPods had a
19% PC to Macintosh platform conversion rate compared with a street
expectation of 10%."

With today's announcement of Boot Camp, this could nudge sales and
conversion rates even higher:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/05/technology/05cnd-apple.html

Marilyn

Neil Lee said:

>I don't know if this is off topic or not, but I was wondering if
>anyone has seen any rough statistics from a reliable source on the
>number of Mac users in North America and in the world? Or the number
>of Mac OS X users worldwide?
>
>I've done a bunch of googling but haven't been able to find anything
>useful yet.


You probably won't find anything that is more than cursory. There _were_
two major market research firms that kept track of PC market share:

Gartner
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner

and Dataquest. Gartner purchased Dataquest, so there is now only one.

Gartner charges quite a bit of money for its reports. Generally the only
folks who purchase them are companies who really need to know what they
say, such as the personal computer manufacturers themselves. We only
tend to hear dribs and drabs of Gartner's reports when Apple decides to
use parts of them in their advertising, or when a PC company leaks some
of Gartner's reports to the news media.

So, Apple knows the answer to your question, but, generally, they won't
tell you, even if you have a contact at Apple.










Randy B. Singer
Co-Author of: The Macintosh Bible (4th, 5th and 6th editions)

Routine OS X Maintenance and Generic Troubleshooting
http://www.macattorney.com/ts.html

On 07 Apr 2006, at 05:46 , Randy B. Singer wrote:
> So, Apple knows the answer to your question, but, generally, they
> won't
> tell you, even if you have a contact at Apple.

No, they don't. No one does.

The only thing that Gartner tracks is new purchases. No one tracks
installed base, so there will be no real numbers for this.

If you call 600 random people across the country and ask them what
kind of computer they have you'll have a study with ±5% accuracy though.


--
RTFM replies are great, but please specify exactly which FM to R

On Apr 7, 2006, at 8:47 PM, Google Kreme wrote:

> If you call 600 random people across the country and ask them what
> kind of computer they have you'll have a study with ±5% accuracy
> though.

Except for the answers of "I don't know," "black," and variations,
amounting to 25% or so.

It used to be true that Macs stayed in service longer than Windows
machines; it probably still is. So new sales are only an indication.

And when the question is "users" it is necessary to work out people
per machine (the survey above is likely to get better results on that
one than on the "what kind?").

   --John

on 4/8/06 12:27 AM, johnbaxterlistsmac.com at johnbaxterlistsmac.com wrote:

On Apr 7, 2006, at 8:47 PM, Google Kreme wrote:

> If you call 600 random people across the country and ask them what
> kind of computer they have you'll have a study with ±5% accuracy
> though.

Except for the answers of "I don't know," "black," and variations,
amounting to 25% or so.

It may be that most people don’t know – but not if they have a Mac.  So data on the Mac-only question will be good, even if data on other machines is poor.

--On April 7, 2006 8:47:24 PM -0700 Google Kreme <gkremegmail.com> wrote:

> On 07 Apr 2006, at 05:46 , Randy B. Singer wrote:
>> So, Apple knows the answer to your question, but, generally, they
>> won't
>> tell you, even if you have a contact at Apple.
>
> No, they don't. No one does.

Apple Software Update should give them a rough idea of how many Macs are in
service and what OS X version they have (was there a software update for
pre-OS X, I thought 9 had one too -- does it still work?)

I have a gut feeling from most Mac users I know that they haven't turned
off auto-update. I have but still use Software Update to get new versions.
So I think that would be fairly accurate.

Even though software update doesn't report back a machine id, I don't think
many people have set their machines to auto-update daily. Averaging the
hits on the Update server over a week when no software was released would
give a good idea. Do some additional analysis when a new release goes out
to catch people like me that turn off auto-updates but still do manual
updates when a new release comes out.

I think has a good estimate of the number of Macs in use, but I would say
it's a 100% accurate.

On 09 Apr 2006, at 14:45 , Kevin van Haaren wrote:
> --On April 7, 2006 8:47:24 PM -0700 Google Kreme <gkremegmail.com>
> wrote:
>> On 07 Apr 2006, at 05:46 , Randy B. Singer wrote:
>>> So, Apple knows the answer to your question, but, generally, they
>>> won't
>>> tell you, even if you have a contact at Apple.
>>
>> No, they don't. No one does.
>
> Apple Software Update should give them a rough idea of how many
> Macs are in
> service and what OS X version they have (was there a software
> update for
> pre-OS X, I thought 9 had one too -- does it still work?)

I was recently in a coffee shop and asked someone if I could borrow
their powerbook to check my gmail (they were not using it at the time
and I have a 'nodding' acquaintance with them). This person has a
cable modem at home, a T1 at their office, and decently fast wifi at
the coffee shop.

Out of curiosity, I checked their OS version -- 10.4.1

> I have a gut feeling from most Mac users I know that they haven't
> turned
> off auto-update. I have but still use Software Update to get new
> versions.
> So I think that would be fairly accurate.

They may not turn it off, but it seems a shocking percentage just
close the window.

> Even though software update doesn't report back a machine id, I
> don't think
> many people have set their machines to auto-update daily.
> Averaging the
> hits on the Update server over a week when no software was released
> would
> give a good idea. Do some additional analysis when a new release
> goes out
> to catch people like me that turn off auto-updates but still do manual
> updates when a new release comes out.
>
> I think has a good estimate of the number of Macs in use, but I
> would say
> it's a 100% accurate.

It ignores all the legacy macs. My brother in law, until last month,
was running a Performa 5300 with something like System 8.1 or 8.5.
There are a lot of machine out there doing specific task that would
never auto update. (My office G3, for example, hasn't auto updated
since I installed OS X on it because I need to be sure everything
works before installing something new).

"Mac Users" vs "Windows Users" is not really as meaningful a
comparison as it may once have been, anyway, due to the growing cross-
over usage and family-computing needs where a group of users shares a
Mac and a Windows system in the same household. (PC, meaning
'Personal Computer' as in owned by a person is becoming more and more
a 'notebook' device, whereas desktop systems for the home are more
apt to be FCs - Family Computers) The number of potential Mac System
Buyers in a give quarter or year is what matters most to a company
like Apple and it's 3rd party developers. This has been a source of
'maturing' the market without necessarily growing 'market share'
because of the nature of what is actually happening in the current
installed base of computer users: sharing systems, crossing over from
Mac to Windows and from Windows to Mac, and the fact that when a
Windows user buys a Mac, they are still, usually, a Windows users, at
least for a time. They don't simply ditch their Wintel box. Some do.
Many don't.

For example, in urban areas there are a given number of mass transit
users. Mass transit users probably use more than one kind of
transportation. If we gathered the number of bus users, subway users,
and carpool users and added them up we'd probably have two to three
times the number of actual mass transit users. Not a perfect analogy,
but in our household of 5 there are 4 Windows users, 2 Linux users, 4
Mac users, for a total of 10 computer users; only there are only 5 of
us and my wife doesn't even use a computer. (Her iPod is all the
computer she ever wants.)

The point is, Apple's marketing effort is not mainly to non-computer
users looking for an easy to use computer. That's a small part, but
not significant. There are overseas markets, of course, where most
citizens have not acquired computers, and as those markets mature, of
course Apple wants a bite (pun intended). Their marketing primarily
goes after Mac users who might wish to upgrade or add additional
systems to their home and business use, much like the cell phone
companies come after us with 'deals' for adding additional users to
our accounts. A close second in marketing efforts, I think, is
getting Windows users to add a Mac to their home or office. As North
Americans continue to add TVs and personal multi-media players and
recorders to their homes, it may make sense for many of them, with
the lower price of entry these days, to acquire an additional
computer and Apple would like a growing percentage of this particular
market to be Apple; the iPod is a strategic wedge into this market.
The slowness of the market to respond is partly due to pricing
issues, and partly due to the dynamics of a fast changing technology
such as this. There is really not much incentive to force buyers to
buy when they have become accustomed to the 'truism' that the penalty
for 'waiting' is better machines at lower prices.

Apple's latest incentive for a family like mine is that, I really
don't need to upgrade BOTH the Mac and Wintel systems in the next
year or two... I can replace the Wintels with a new Mactel and sell
or donate the older Macs, thus making my life simpler, and our
electric bill lower. But statistically, it won't really change
Apple's market share within our small household, compared to
Microsoft. It will change market share compared to Shuttle PCs, however.

Jeffrey

> I don't know if this is off topic or not, but I was wondering if
> anyone has seen any rough statistics from a reliable source on the
> number of Mac users in North America and in the world? Or the number
> of Mac OS X users worldwide?

If it's any help, Apple's annual report breaks down sales by
geographic region. For units sold to 2005-09 we have:

Americas Mac unit sales 2184 48%
Europe 1138 25%
Japan 313 7%
Retail 609 13%
Other 290 6%
Total 4534 100%

Cheers

--
Ever notice how fast Windows runs? Neither did I.