TidBITS 800: Trends to Watch

On Oct 11, 2005, at 11:10 PM, Marilyn Matty wrote:

> The excellent "Trends" article in the latest issue makes great points
> about the growth of the internet contributing to the decline in user
> groups and conferences. I think another factor is the success of the
> Apple Stores. When there's a local genius bar that can help with
> snafus and questions, advise about purchases, etc., why wait weeks
> for a user group meeting, or months to see the latest Photoshop demo,
> purchase bling iPod accessories, etc. when there are regularly
> scheduled classes, presentations and events at a nearby store.

I've also found that user groups are incredibly uneven. For a while,
nearly a year ago, I was looking for a local Mac user group on the
theory that I might find fellow developers there, and so I visited a
couple. I didn't find any Mac developers, but I found a variety of
organizations in different states of health. (And they were all
closer than the nearest Apple store, #$% it; there's an Apple
Authorized Reseller and a CompUSA near me, but the former is worse
than useless -- the sort of store that will go out of business in a
New York minute if an actual Apple store ever opens up within 50
miles -- and the latter is a great place for hardware but not much
more.) Apple stores, by contrast, are a remarkably consistent
experience.

> The landscape of software developers has certainly changed, I think
> that the continuing growth of grassroots developers is a good thing,
> one that indicates the power of the Mac market.

One of the things that Steve Jobs understands is the use of the
computer as a tool to amplify the work of the user. This is as
apparent in the Macintosh development tools -- the Cocoa frameworks,
in particular -- as it is in the Macintosh itself. One grassroots
developer working with a Mac can accomplish a lot more than one
grassroots developer working with Windows, and with a lot less pain.

> While most of the new
> entrants into Macs might not be interested in extending the user
> experience by buying software add ons (I suspect most longtime
> Windows users quite get this concept),

On the other hand, your *average* Mac user is far more likely to pay
$10 to $20 for a piece of shareware than your *average* Windows
user. (In part, that's because the average Windows user is using a
corporate-controlled PC at work most of the time.) This comes up in
discussions of software markets: despite the Mac having 2% to 4% of
computer market share (depending on who you ask) and having between
4% and 10% of the installed base (again, depending on who you ask),
Macs account for a lot more than that of the shareware purchases - by
some estimates, 20% to 40% (still, depending on who you ask.)

Combine that with the ease of developing for Macs, and you have an
appealing proposition for small independent developers: develop for
the Mac, and you'll spend less effort and get comparable revenue. If
it takes 20% to 40% as much effort to produce a polished product, and
you get 20% to 40% as much sales, then developing for the Mac makes a
lot of sense -- especially as the big corporate developers, by and
large, concentrate on Windows and produce a Mac version as an
afterthought.

This is one of the trends I'm happiest to see....

Charlton



--
Charlton Wilbur
cwilburchromatico.net