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TidBITS 800: Trends to Watch

mmatty (apparently) - 08:10pm Oct 11, 2005 PST
via email

Congratulations to Adam and the rest of the TidBITS gang for reaching
another milestone. My issue of TidBITS has become a weekly event that
I look forward to, and the newsletter continues to set and exceed
standards in Mac journalism.

The excellent "Trends" article in the latest issue makes great points
about the growth of the internet contributing to the decline in user
groups and conferences. I think another factor is the success of the
Apple Stores. When there's a local genius bar that can help with
snafus and questions, advise about purchases, etc., why wait weeks
for a user group meeting, or months to see the latest Photoshop demo,
purchase bling iPod accessories, etc. when there are regularly
scheduled classes, presentations and events at a nearby store. And
here in NYC, the Soho Apple Store has been acknowledged in the
mainstream news media as a hot pickup spot for singles of all ages as
well as a stopping place for musicians and artists.

The Apple Stores are more likely to attract Windows users who want
iPods and accessories, and while they are on premise, will hopefully
fool around with the Minis, iBooks, etc. The stores do a great job of
presenting "The Mac is an appliance," which I think will be an
increasingly important motivating factor to potential switchers, who
are not likely to attend Mac conferences.

The landscape of software developers has certainly changed, I think
that the continuing growth of grassroots developers is a good thing,
one that indicates the power of the Mac market. While most of the new
entrants into Macs might not be interested in extending the user
experience by buying software add ons (I suspect most longtime
Windows users quite get this concept), I think it's also important to
consider the number of companies that have built business making
accessories like cases, speakers, etc., for iPods and Macs, and how
many of the switchers and casual users are interested in buying them.

BMW and other car manufacturers offer iPod controls on steering
wheels - a perfect example of Apple hardware melding with appliances.
The Apple/Cingular iTunes cell phone is another example.

When it comes to online music sales, Apple continues to leave the
music industry shaking its head in dismay. For a while, the business
press has been speculating that Apple might become involved in online
film and video sales.

And consider that Microsoft has been fighting valiantly against Sony,
etc. with the Xbox, which has never come close to the dominance in
its market that Apple has achieved in portable music players and
online music sales.

If there's one thing we can depend on Apple to do, it's to keep
snapping the hardware, software and entertainment markets out of
inertia. Being an important part of the digital home is an area of
tremendous future profit for Apple, and like Adam, I believe we'll be
seeing a lot of interesting developments in our favorite platform in
the future.

Marilyn

Mark as Read

cwilbur (apparently) - Oct 12, 2005 7:52 am (#1 Total: 1)

via email

Posts: 84

Re: TidBITS 800: Trends to Watch

On Oct 11, 2005, at 11:10 PM, Marilyn Matty wrote:

> The excellent "Trends" article in the latest issue makes great points
> about the growth of the internet contributing to the decline in user
> groups and conferences. I think another factor is the success of the
> Apple Stores. When there's a local genius bar that can help with
> snafus and questions, advise about purchases, etc., why wait weeks
> for a user group meeting, or months to see the latest Photoshop demo,
> purchase bling iPod accessories, etc. when there are regularly
> scheduled classes, presentations and events at a nearby store.

I've also found that user groups are incredibly uneven. For a while,
nearly a year ago, I was looking for a local Mac user group on the
theory that I might find fellow developers there, and so I visited a
couple. I didn't find any Mac developers, but I found a variety of
organizations in different states of health. (And they were all
closer than the nearest Apple store,

#$% it; there's an Apple
Authorized Reseller and a CompUSA near me, but the former is worse
than useless -- the sort of store that will go out of business in a
New York minute if an actual Apple store ever opens up within 50
miles -- and the latter is a great place for hardware but not much
more.) Apple stores, by contrast, are a remarkably consistent
experience.

> The landscape of software developers has certainly changed, I think
> that the continuing growth of grassroots developers is a good thing,
> one that indicates the power of the Mac market.

One of the things that Steve Jobs understands is the use of the
computer as a tool to amplify the work of the user. This is as
apparent in the Macintosh development tools -- the Cocoa frameworks,
in particular -- as it is in the Macintosh itself. One grassroots
developer working with a Mac can accomplish a lot more than one
grassroots developer working with Windows, and with a lot less pain.

> While most of the new
> entrants into Macs might not be interested in extending the user
> experience by buying software add ons (I suspect most longtime
> Windows users quite get this concept),

On the other hand, your *average* Mac user is far more likely to pay
$10 to $20 for a piece of shareware than your *average* Windows
user. (In part, that's because the average Windows user is using a
corporate-controlled PC at work most of the time.) This comes up in
discussions of software markets: despite the Mac having 2% to 4% of
computer market share (depending on who you ask) and having between
4% and 10% of the installed base (again, depending on who you ask),
Macs account for a lot more than that of the shareware purchases - by
some estimates, 20% to 40% (still, depending on who you ask.)

Combine that with the ease of developing for Macs, and you have an
appealing proposition for small independent developers: develop for
the Mac, and you'll spend less effort and get comparable revenue. If
it takes 20% to 40% as much effort to produce a polished product, and
you get 20% to 40% as much sales, then developing for the Mac makes a
lot of sense -- especially as the big corporate developers, by and
large, concentrate on Windows and produce a Mac version as an
afterthought.

This is one of the trends I'm happiest to see....

Charlton

--
Charlton Wilbur
cwilbur

chromatico.net

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