Zune Doom

This goes under the Not Urgent Not Important category but nevertheless
interesting reading (especially the wierder, I mean reader comments):

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/ByteOfTheApple/blog/archives/2006/11/why_does_bill_o.html

A.

> What was that "taste" comment I remember from a certain someone? ;-)

Viz:

<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXxCru2TvGo>

;)


Regards,

Jochen.

Here is the most fascinating Zune vs. iPod article that I've read:

http://playlistmag.com/news/2006/11/24/zune/index.php?lsrc=mwrss



Randy B. Singer

Co-Author of:
The Macintosh Bible (4th, 5th and 6th editions)

OS X Routine Maintenance
http://www.macattorney.com/ts.html

At 11:18 AM -0800 11/26/06, Randy B. Singer wrote:
>Here is the most fascinating Zune vs. iPod article that I've read:

I don't know if anybody has mentioned Andy Ihnatko's review.
<http://www.suntimes.com/technology/ihnatko/147048,CST-FIN-Andy23.article>
He is not impressed. In fact you could say he's downright
curmudgeonly about the thing. A few selections...

The piece opens with: "Yes, Microsoft's new Zune digital music player
is just plain dreadful."

And continues with such gems as: " 'Avoid,' is my general message.
The Zune is a square wheel, a product that's so absurd and so
obviously immune to success that it evokes something akin to a sense
of pity."


[And what's really funny is that Andy said in our MacNotables podcast about it that he threw out earlier drafts that weren't nearly as nice. :-) -Adam]

<http://www.macnotables.com/archives/2006/687.html>

--On November 26, 2006 11:18:40 AM -0800 "Randy B. Singer"
<randymacattorney.com> wrote:

> Here is the most fascinating Zune vs. iPod article that I've read:
>
> http://playlistmag.com/news/2006/11/24/zune/index.php?lsrc=mwrss

I think Andy Ihnatko is a bit closer to reality, although I disagree with
his prediction that the Zune will be gone in 6
months.

<http://www.suntimes.com/technology/ihnatko/147048,CST-FIN-Andy23.article>

Mike Elgan, in the playlist magazine article you link to, basically says
the Zune as-is is a flop and that to beat the iPod Microsoft needs to
producer an open player that users can really modify, more along the lines
of the PC.

I agree that this is a way to beat the iPod, however I don't think
Microsoft is capable of producing a device they don't control. Looks at
the lengths they went to on XBox and XBox 360 to lock the systems down.
Look at the EULA for Vista which adds anti-benchmarking publication
requirements and limits the number of times you can move the OS to
different hardware.

On 11/27/2006 5:41 AM, "Kevin van Haaren" wrote:
> Mike Elgan, in the playlist magazine article you link to, basically says
> the Zune as-is is a flop and that to beat the iPod Microsoft needs to
> producer an open player that users can really modify, more along the lines
> of the PC.
>
> I agree that this is a way to beat the iPod, however I don't think
> Microsoft is capable of producing a device they don't control. Looks at
> the lengths they went to on XBox and XBox 360 to lock the systems down.
> Look at the EULA for Vista which adds anti-benchmarking publication
> requirements and limits the number of times you can move the OS to
> different hardware.

I very much disagree with Mike Elgan. I think what he's proposing is an
interesting device, but it's certainly not an "iPod-killer" -- it's a
product for a different market altogether. The iPod is popular because it's
simple, easy to use, and does -- very well -- what it was designed to do.

I'm writing an article for Playlist in response to Mike's ;-)

(For the record, that was a Computerworld piece reprinted in Playlist.)

On 11/21/06 at 6:38 AM, anguskypegmail.com (Angus Wong) wrote:

> Sorry but I am just not getting the big deal about FM radio and the
> iPod.
>
> I've been waiting for someone to bring this up but nobody has yet.
>
> Is the iPod Radio Remote ($49) not a good currently-shipping option
> for all iPod users who want/need radio?
<snip>
> I don't see how radio can be a compelling Zune feature.

I'd be curious to see what kind of sales the dongle has had since it was
introduced, though the results may be mixed because it doubles as the
only official Apple remote control for the iPod.

I'd also note that competing manufacturers have been trying to use FM
radio as a competitive advantage against the iPod for at least a couple
of years now, and judging by the results it certainly hasn't provided
one.

Travis Butler
tbutlermac.com

On 11/27/06 at 5:41 AM, kevinvanhaaren.net (Kevin van Haaren) wrote:

> Mike Elgan, in the playlist magazine article you link to, basically
> says the Zune as-is is a flop and that to beat the iPod Microsoft
> needs to producer an open player that users can really modify, more
> along the lines of the PC.
>
> I agree that this is a way to beat the iPod, however I don't think
> Microsoft is capable of producing a device they don't control. Looks
> at the lengths they went to on XBox and XBox 360 to lock the systems
> down. Look at the EULA for Vista which adds anti-benchmarking
> publication requirements and limits the number of times you can move
> the OS to different hardware.

And I'd disagree with the entire premise of the article. 'open player
that users can really modify' sounds a lot more like Linux than Windows,
and I think it would appeal to the same group of users - tech hobbyists
and gearheads, people who like to tweak and customize every little
detail. Which may be a significant market, but it's certainly not the
mass market.

To me, anyway, it sounds like the whole 'compete on features' meme that
FM radio capability falls into, and that so far has proven a failure in
the marketplace. I've seen player after player get released, each with a
cool tech feature or two (or several) that appeals to tech geeks - FM
radio, standard audio recording, Ogg Vorbis support, etc. etc. etc. It
gets fawned over by the CNet/Engagdet/Extreme Tech crowd. And then it
sinks without a trace. My conclusion is that the mass market doesn't
care about lots of features/configurability/open systems, or
subscription services, or buying music from multiple PlaysForSure
partners, or any of the other features that keep getting touted by tech
pundits but have flopped in the marketplace. And my (admittedly biased)
opinion is that this is because the consumer market prefers simplicity
and elegance over features and configurability, which is a direct
refutation of Elgan's theme: "Apple's instinct to maximize elegance at
the expense of extensibility made them No. 1 in the media player market,
but the future belongs to customizable, multifunction players."

I've also seen the 'too many choices' meme* pop up again in the last
week or two in the tech blogosphere (wish I could remember where), and
I'm surprised I haven't seen it explicitly tied to the iPod yet; again
this may simply be hitting my biases, but it seems to me that's one of
the biggest reasons for the iPod's success, that it focuses on
simplicity instead of featureitis.

*(That too many choices makes consumers less satisfied, because
confusion and frustration in being required to make the choices
outweighs the extra benefits from more customization.)

Travis Butler
tbutlermac.com

On 11/27/06 07:41, "Kevin van Haaren" <kevinvanhaaren.net> wrote:

> Mike Elgan, in the playlist magazine article you link to, basically says
> the Zune as-is is a flop and that to beat the iPod Microsoft needs to
> producer an open player that users can really modify, more along the lines
> of the PC.
>
> I agree that this is a way to beat the iPod, however I don't think
> Microsoft is capable of producing a device they don't control. Looks at
> the lengths they went to on XBox and XBox 360 to lock the systems down.
> Look at the EULA for Vista which adds anti-benchmarking publication
> requirements and limits the number of times you can move the OS to
> different hardware.

When has Microsoft ever produced an open anything? The computer *hardware*
manufacturers do, but Microsoft has continually tried, once it had the
power, to create spec after spec that would make it hard, if not impossible
to load a !Windows OS onto a computer, because they would control the specs
that control the OS load.

Anytime Microsoft starts talking about "open", keep your hand on your
wallet, your back against the wall, and get out of lightning range quickly.

--
John C. Welch Writer/Analyst
Bynkii.com Mac and other opinions
jwelchbynkii.com

>I think Andy Ihnatko is a bit closer to reality, although I disagree with
>his prediction that the Zune will be gone in 6
>months.
>
><http://www.suntimes.com/technology/ihnatko/147048,CST-FIN-Andy23.article>

Well, you can expect this from Andy ;-). I've seen many Zune reviews
that were pretty bad, but they were all from Apple/Mac people. What
surprised me was that the reviews on the "other side" were quite
favourable, for instance:

Gizmodo:
http://www.gizmodo.com/gadgets/portable-media/zune-first-full-review-212255.php
PCWorld:
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,127867/article.html
IGN:
http://gear.ign.com/articles/746/746470p1.html
CNET:
http://reviews.cnet.com/Zune_30GB_black/4505-6490_7-32068976.html

I was not very impressed by the PCWorld review, MacWorld does a far
better job at reviewing; maybe there will be another more in-depth
review soon. These reviews give the Zune an 8 out of 10 (or something
in that neighbourhood); with conclusions like: 'Until Apple blows the
Zune out of the water with the long rumored touch-screen iPod, the
Zune is one of our favorite mp3 players on the market.' (IGN). I
wander what influence these reviews will have on the Christmas
sales...

Maurice

> Here is the most fascinating Zune vs. iPod article that I've read:
>
> http://playlistmag.com/news/2006/11/24/zune/

Dan Frakes has written a very thoughtful in-depth response to that
article:

<http://playlistmag.com/weblogs/ipodblog/2006/11/ipodkiller/>

IMHO, the most obvious flaw in Mike Elgan's argument is that he
misjudges the appeal of simplicity. The iPod focuses on one thing,
and does that one thing extremely well. It's the anti-feature-bloat
device, and that is what made -- and makes -- it so successful.

If Microsoft wants to see the Zune succeed, they shouldn't open up
the platform, which may lead to all the stability and usability
issues we have come to "love" about Windows. Instead, why not keep it
focused on being a media player first and foremost, but give its UI
look-and-feel a twist that may appeal to a different target audience
than does the very simplistic UI of the iPod?

As an example, while I don't like the Zune's UI much overall, it
would be neat to be able to browse album art while a song is playing.
That's a feature that is not available on the iPod right now. It's
these details that may give the Zune a competitive edge with some
potential buyers. Then again, if Apple added a Cover Flow view to the
iPod...


Jochen.


P.S.: Is it just me, or did anyone else think there is a noticeable
bellicose undertone to that article? "[Zune]’s nice but definitely no
“iPod killer.” But it could be. And should be."? "If Microsoft turns
Zune into a media-optimized, extensible mini-PC that really works,
the iPod is as good as dead."?!

Offering a solid, interesting alternative product with great
potential apparently is not enough. No, it has to effectively
eradicate the competition. Thanks, Mr Elgan, for reminding me of just
what it was that makes me seriously dislike Microsoft as a company.

>I wander what influence these {positive} reviews will have on the Christmas
>sales...

Zero, none, zip, nada. Like I said before, the Zune is a non-starter.
It is NOT selling well (if it were, the PR machine at Microsoft would
be trumpeting the sales numbers... you know it) and it will be gone
by summer. Yet another stillborn product for the history books... the
"Bob" of this decade.

Yes, Microsoft takes three revs to get a product right.
Yes, Microsoft is willing to bleed cash to get a market right.

But they have to sell *something* first. This thing is colored brown
because it is a turd. Even Microsoft can't polish a turd enough to
get people to buy it.

There is no *compelling* reason to buy this device. It isn't like the
Xbox, or even WinCE (now PocketPC)... it just does not have enough
magic, or significantly interesting "stuff" to get enough, if ANY
people to buy it over an iPod. It is too restrictive, too late, too
big, too expensive, and too ugly.

I am by no means an Apple fan-boy, or a Microsoft-hater (I loathe
both equally most days!) I just see this product as a failure. Period.


--chuck


--
________________________________________________________________________
traceroute is a disconcertingly blunt hammer; that we continue to use it
to essentially nail moving jello to a wall says more about us than about
anything on the Internet. --k claffy, At 8:43 -0700 10/17/02 on NANOG

<http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB116467941732234076.html>

The Wall Street Journal

Microsoft's Zune Falls Off Sales Pace For Media Players

By CARMEN FLEETWOOD

November 28, 2006; Page B2

On Amazon.com's Top 10 selling list for electronics yesterday, seven of the 10 products were digital media players. Nowhere did the Microsoft Corp. or Zune names appear.

"That's a pretty good indicator of consumer interest," Michael Gartenberg of industry group Jupiter Research said yesterday, one of the busiest days of the year with online shoppers.

The 30-gigabyte Zune player from Microsoft, which retails for $249, was on the Top 10 list of Amazon, the largest Internet retailer, for several days after its release on Nov. 14 before dropping off. But yesterday, the most popular model of the Zune, the black version, was at No. 76. The Top 10 digital media players included six iPods from top-seller Apple Computer Inc. and one MP3 player from SanDisk Corp. The 30-gigabyte iPod has a $249 list price and ranked No. 2 at one point yesterday.

"The product [Zune] wasn't particularly attractive. At the end of the day, you put it on a shelf and it just didn't compare," said Rob Enderle of research firm Enderle Group.

Microsoft has noted the Herculean effort it would take to overcome the lead Apple has built up in the digital media market in five years since the introduction of the iPod. Microsoft is trying to build up a total ecosystem with the product and the Zune Marketplace music Web site in order to compete with Apple and its iTunes store. Sales of Zune in the first week after the Nov. 14 launch were "exactly within our expectations," a Microsoft spokeswoman said. She added that she is still awaiting information for holiday weekend sales.

Analysts say the Zune is more likely to snag market share from other digital media players instead of Apple this holiday season. Sales estimates from a number of industry analysts for Zune ranged from 300,000 units to a high of about 500,000 units for the 2006 holiday season.

If Microsoft sells close to the upper range of sales estimates of 500,000, Zune would generate about $125 million, a miniscule amount in comparison to overall revenue. In fiscal 2007, analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call expect revenue of more than $50 billion and earnings of $1.45 a share. Microsoft has said it doesn't expect to profit from this product right away.

Zune received accolades for its built-in wireless capability and ability to share music with other Zune users for three plays, something not available in the iPod. A larger screen than available on the iPod and a built-in FM radio were noted as positives for the Zune, which is also available in white and brown.

Critics found the Zune Marketplace, where Zune owners must buy their music, confusing. Also, the Zune is incompatible with Apple's iTunes store. The Zune doesn't support podcast audio programs nor can it transfer television and video programs from Microsoft's Media Center. Others have faulted the lack of videos available on the Zune Marketplace site, and the device's heavier weight and shorter battery life to an equivalent iPod were negatives to consumers seeking to purchase an MP3 player.

-- ----------------- R. A. Hettinga <mailto: rahibuc.com> The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation <http://www.ibuc.com/>

On 11/29/06 3:15 PM, "Travis Butler" <tbutlerbirch.net> wrote:

> I've also seen the 'too many choices' meme* pop up again in the last
> week or two in the tech blogosphere (wish I could remember where), and
> I'm surprised I haven't seen it explicitly tied to the iPod yet; again
> this may simply be hitting my biases, but it seems to me that's one of
> the biggest reasons for the iPod's success, that it focuses on
> simplicity instead of featureitis.
>
> *(That too many choices makes consumers less satisfied, because
> confusion and frustration in being required to make the choices
> outweighs the extra benefits from more customization.)

The recent incarnation of the 'too many choices' meme started with Joel
Spolsky's article on Windows Vista's many-optioned "Off button."

http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2006/11/21.html

The "too much" problem on the desktop is not quite the same as on portable
devices. With desktop software, there's usually a great deal of screen real
estate and the temptation is to fill up menus and dialogs with lots of
options.

Here's a different kind of example than the Vista Off button:
http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/archives/000734.html

In portable devices there are the "natural" limitations of a small (or no)
screen and limited buttons or other controls. You can still have too many
options in too many menus on a portable device but you reach the point of
absurdity much more quickly. There's also the problem of "overloading" the
limited controls with too many functions; some people think pressing and
holding the center button on an iPod to add a track to the on-the-go
playlist is too much.

I gave my wife an iRiver IFP-380 MP3 player because she was interested in
being able to record and it had both a built-in mic and a line-in jack.
http://www.iriveramerica.com/support/ultra/300.aspx
It's a marvel of engineering fitting so many features in a device that's so
small and light but it didn't succeed with her (or me) as a product. In
addition to the physical controls being too small, it was too hard to use.
I'm sure with regular, daily use she or I could have remembered how to use
the controls for particular a particular task, like browsing and playing
music, but it's too hard to remember how to perform an infrequent task like
recording or listening to FM.

On Nov 26, 2006, at 2:18 PM, Randy B. Singer wrote:

> Here is the most fascinating Zune vs. iPod article that I've read:
>
> http://playlistmag.com/news/2006/11/24/zune/index.php?lsrc=mwrss
>

There's a big problem with this analysis, I think, in that it assumes
what is so far an urban legend to be true: "the iPod-like phone
coming soon from Apple." To date, I have heard rumors of an iPhone
for years, but have never heard anything but denials from Apple.

Bringing an iPhone to market will necessitate more than competing
with already established manufacturers, it would require establishing
exclusive relationships with service providers; this is something I
think Mr. Jobs is too smart to want to get involved with. It would
require hardware as well as software development.

Apple already has an iTunes licensing arrangement with Motorola, and
it hasn't exactly set the world on fire as iPod and iTunes have.
Because it was pretty much just a licensing arrangement with the
store, there wasn't much, if anything, in development costs for apple.

Microsoft already has a presence with Windows Mobile Software, but
it's not exactly making money or setting the world on fire either.
It's been a very expensive, and to date unprofitable, sideline for
Microsoft.

While Microsoft has yet to score a profitable beyond office oriented
products (Xbox is still in the red, and far behind Playstation in
sales and market share), Apple is very successful not just with iPod/
iTunes, but with Final Cut Pro, iPhoto, etc.

Marilyn

On Nov 29, 2006, at 3:15 PM, Maurice van Peursem wrote:

>> I think Andy Ihnatko is a bit closer to reality, although I
>> disagree with
>> his prediction that the Zune will be gone in 6
>> months.
>>
>> <http://www.suntimes.com/technology/ihnatko/147048,CST-FIN-
>> Andy23.article>
>
> Well, you can expect this from Andy ;-). I've seen many Zune reviews
> that were pretty bad, but they were all from Apple/Mac people. What
> surprised me was that the reviews on the "other side" were quite
> favourable, for instance:
>

OK, so maybe David Pogue started out as a Mac guy. But he has become
cross platform over the last few years, and he practically barfed
over Zune in the NY Times article Glenn linked to in "Zune Doom." And
the two newscasters and the tech reviewer at CNN someone linked to on
CNN aren't known Mac zealots or inconsequential reviewers either.

Walter Mossberg of The Wall St. Journal doesn't exactly sound like
he's going to start a Zune fan club:

http://ptech.wsj.com/archive/ptech-20061109.html

The Washington Post's Rob Pegoraro didn't exactly make nice either:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/18/
AR2006111800040.html

And I've read lots of other negative reviews in the unbiased press as
well - much more than favorable ones.

Marilyn

At 5:28 am -0800 01/12/2006, chuck goolsbee wrote:
>But they have to sell *something* first. This thing is colored brown
>because it is a turd. Even Microsoft can't polish a turd enough to
>get people to buy it.

And according to Wired's 'Cult of Mac' blog, even iPod chargers are
outselling the Zune on Amazon:

http://blog.wired.com/cultofmac/2006/11/ipod_chargers_o.html

Chris
--

Chris Reed, BBR Solutions Ltd * http://www.bbr-online.com

On 12/1/2006 5:34 AM, "Marilyn Matty" wrote:
>> Here is the most fascinating Zune vs. iPod article that I've read:
>>
>> http://playlistmag.com/news/2006/11/24/zune/index.php?lsrc=mwrss
>>
>
> There's a big problem with this analysis, I think, in that it assumes
> what is so far an urban legend to be true: "the iPod-like phone
> coming soon from Apple." To date, I have heard rumors of an iPhone
> for years, but have never heard anything but denials from Apple.

The problem with the analysis in that article isn't that he assumes an
Apple-branded phone/player; that's eventually going to happen. The problem
is that he thinks adding complexity is the way to beat the iPod.

On Dec 1, 2006, at 7:34 AM, Marilyn Matty wrote:

> And I've read lots of other negative reviews in the unbiased press as
> well - much more than favorable ones.

I think the MacNotables podcast really connected with my overall
sense of pity/sadness/embarrassment with the whole Zune fiasco. This
is really a 'bad thing' for the portable music industry, and one
would hope that not many will experience the frustration that comes
with owning a Zune, particularly if they have never had a good
experience with an iPod. To the average person, they look similar and
should function similarly, so if they find they are very much
disenchanted with the Zune, they will likely transfer that opinion to
all similar devices. I still find a similar thing when people who
have grown up in a Windows world are approached with the idea that
Apple's computers/software is better. To many, 'better' is relative,
as when comparing an overdone steak to a really burnt steak; neither
is particularly palatable. They don't really imagine it's
significantly better to the point they would actually use terms such
as 'like' or 'love' when referring to a personal computer.

My hope is that MS would just quietly make it go away. I doubt they
can 'fix' this situation since it's very difficult to repair a first
impression when it is so negative. If they had just overpriced a good
thing, or underpriced a mediocre thing, they might have somewhere to
go. But where do you go with an overpriced, underqualified product?

As Adam pointed out in the podcast, roasting the Zune and MS may feel
a little like we're making fun of the awkward kid in school, except
for the fact that these guys are really really powerful and rich and
should know better. Just because you CAN lose money, doesn't mean you
have the right to flaunt that power and just keep losing money in an
attempt to wear down the truly innovative competitors that are making
real contributions in technology. If they had a truly innovative,
quality product, it would be a different thing. As it is, it looks
more like a big company dumping pollutants into the stream just
because they can afford the legal defense and fines for being a bad
citizen.

Jeffrey McPheeters, NetGeezer and one of those unfortunates who were
beta testing Windows .9 through 95!

There's an excellent (and unfavorable) analysis of the strategy
behind Zune in last week's Ad Age (beware of mousing to the far right
of the page; there's an Eyewonder ad that will start yakking
automatically if you cross it's path):

http://adage.com/columns/article?article_id=113433

It includes a link to the commercial for Zune (on the left hand side
of the page), and some very snide comments about it (in the ad
business, saying that a creative execution echoes two rather recent
well known campaigns is just about one of the worst snaps
imaginable). It's worth comparing it to the fresh and amazing
creativity in the new iPod Shuffle ad.

If you're interested, take a look soon - AdAge charges to access
articles over a week old.

Marilyn